A 30-Year Heat Wave Analysis in New Jersey

Abstract

New Jersey is the third-fastest warming state in the country since 1970 (Climate Central, 2024) and has experienced a 3.5°F rise since the beginning of the 20th century (Runkle et al., 2022). The warming recorded in New Jersey is part of a broader, region-wide trend that has seen the Northeast United States warm faster than many other regions in the US (Marvel et al., 2023). Unlike much of mid-latitude North America, the coastal Northeastern United States has experienced significant warming in both summer and winter, leading to a high increase in the annual mean temperature. This has resulted in an increase of over 4°F (2°C) in the Northern Hemisphere since 1902 (Karmalkar & Horton, 2021). Rapid warming leads to a higher baseline temperature for the region, increasing the likelihood of extreme heat events occurring. Additionally, climate change impacts atmospheric circulation, resulting in alterations to weather patterns. For example, shifts in the jet stream can trap hot air in one place for longer periods, resulting in prolonged heat waves (Coumou et al., 2018). A heat wave is a stretch of at least three days with temperatures of 90°F or greater (NOAA, 2018), and alterations in localized weather can lead to more frequent and persistent heat waves within the region.